The upper panel of Figure 6 shows raw trends in the unemployment rate since 2016 for workers in the top quartile of exposure and the unexposed group. During COVID, the less AI-exposed workers—who are more likely to have in-person jobs—saw a much larger increase in unemployment. Since then, the trends have been largely similar between the two groups. The lower panel measures the size of the gap between the most and least exposed workers in a difference-in-differences framework, mirroring the findings from the raw data. The average change in the gap since the release of ChatGPT is small and insignificant, suggesting that the unemployment rate of the more exposed group has increased slightly but the effect is indistinguishable from zero.8
Credit: Tina Rowden / HBO
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